Confidence has waned but things haven’t stopped
Sarah Milne, CEO Property Box Finance, looks at what we’re seeing on the ground right now in the property market.
Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and rapidly changing interest rate expectations have meant that the market remains volatile. In recent weeks we’ve seen mortgage products pulled from the market - reflecting lender caution - and a partial reversal of earlier rate cut forecasts.
The latest RICS data reflects that. Buyer enquiries are down, sales are still subdued and short-term expectations have dipped. This is enough to take the edge off confidence. It doesn’t take much for that to feed through. You can feel it quite quickly in how deals move (or don’t).
Developers are being more measured, often taking a step back to sense-check. They are increasingly focused on realistic, deliverable schemes rather than assumptions that leave little room for error. Costs, pricing and exit all need to line up properly. Deals that raise even small questions are coming under closer scrutiny in this sort of market.
At the same time, good schemes are still coming through.
We’ve had a solid start to the year at Property Box. Deal flow in January was strong and February built on that - activity is picking up month by month. What’s been encouraging is the mix in our pipeline. Some broker-led referrals, some from senior banks and we also have more developers coming to us directly. The momentum feels consistent and healthy rather than one-off spikes, which is a great sign for the months ahead.
Demand for mezzanine is also holding up which makes sense. When senior lenders tighten or stop short, there’s still a need to get viable schemes over the line.
If anything, it brings partnerships into sharper focus. What we’re seeing is that the deals progressing tend to be the ones with the right people involved. Brokers who know the detail, senior lenders willing to work openly alongside others, and developers who are realistic about risk. In a less certain market, that alignment really matters.
There’s no getting away from the fact the market is unsettled. But there is still movement. It just comes with a bit more caution behind it.
